Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged as the dominant power in Damascus. While presenting itself as a moderate force capable of governance, HTS’s track record and current leadership raise serious doubts about its intentions. Mohamed Farid warns that engaging with HTS must be approached with extreme caution. While the international community seeks to stabilize Syria and relieve its humanitarian crisis, legitimizing HTS risks empowering an extremist group with deep-rooted ties to terrorism — potentially creating a new breeding ground for Islamist radicalism.

Key Points

1. HTS’s Sudden Rise to Power

• In December 2024, HTS launched an offensive that toppled Assad’s regime, forcing him into exile in Russia.
• HTS announced a 90-day transitional government, promising pluralism and elections, but retained tight control through loyalists.
• The group remains designated by the UN as Syria’s predominant terrorist faction.

2. Contradiction Between Image and Reality

• Public rhetoric emphasizes democracy, minority protections, and dialogue.
• On the ground in Idlib:

○ Arbitrary arrests and torture of activists, journalists, and civilians.

○ Violent suppression of protests against its rule.

○ Restrictions on women’s public participation and closure of cultural events.

• Leadership and ministries dominated by figures with extremist histories, including individuals sanctioned by the U.S. and UN.

3. Foreign Fighters and Militarization

• HTS’s new army incorporates 25–30% foreign fighters, many wanted for terrorism in their home countries.
• The integration of these fighters raises concerns about exporting violence beyond Syria’s borders.

4. A Familiar Islamist Playbook

• HTS mirrors tactics used by the Taliban, Hamas, and Erdogan’s AKP:

○ Rebranding for international legitimacy.

○ Symbolic gestures to attract the West while retaining hardline policies.

○ Gradual consolidation of authoritarian control.

5. Risks of Legitimization

• Past lessons from Iran, the Houthis, and the Afghan Mujahideen show that easing pressure on extremist groups can backfire.
• Legitimizing HTS could:

○ Strengthen extremist Islamist governance in Syria.

○ Undermine democratic and peaceful opposition movements.

○ Encourage other armed groups to use violence as a political pathway.

6. Path Toward an Inclusive Syria

• Relief efforts should be conditioned on tangible reforms:

○ Protection of minorities.

○ Transparent governance.

○ Humanitarian access.

• A political process must preserve Syria’s sovereignty, reflect its societal diversity, and prioritize counterterrorism.
• HTS should remain on terrorist designation lists with strict international monitoring.

Core Values & Themes

• Counterterrorism and regional security as priorities in post-Assad Syria.
• Caution in engagement to avoid legitimizing violent extremist movements.
• Humanitarian support tied to reform benchmarks.
• Commitment to sovereignty and inclusive governance.

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